电网技术2016，Vol.40Issue(12)：3833-3839,7.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.12.028
基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟和核密度估计的概率静态电压稳定计算方法
Probabilistic Static Voltage Stability Calculation Based on Quasi-Monte Carlo and Kernel Density Estimation
摘要
Abstract
In probabilistic static voltage stability analysis,uncertainties in power systems are considered and statistical indices and probability distributions of stability margins can be obtained.Therefore,probabilistic method is an effective complement of traditional deterministic methods.In this paper,probabilistic static voltage stability evaluation based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is studied.In order to improve MCS efficiency,Quasi-Monte Carlo is adopted to obtain samples of input random variables.Besides,diffusion-based kernel density method is designed to accurately estimate probability distribution function of stability margins.IEEE 118-bus system and an actual provincial power grid are studied and simulation results indicate that compared with commonly used MCS methods,the proposed method maintains a high degree of accuracy with relatively smaller sample sizes.With increase of power import and reduction of online generators,stability margin of the provincial system in off-peak period is smaller than that in peak period,i.e.system with smaller loads is closer to critical stable operating point.关键词
电力系统/概率评估/静态电压稳定/拟蒙特卡罗模拟/核密度估计Key words
power system/probabilistic evaluation/static voltage stability/Quasi-Monte Carlo/kernel density estimation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
赵建伟,李禹鹏,杨增辉,严正,徐潇源,冯楠,崔勇..基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟和核密度估计的概率静态电压稳定计算方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(12):3833-3839,7.基金项目
国家电网公司科技项目(52094015001S).Project Supported by State Grid Corporation of China Research Program(52094015001S). （52094015001S）
