工业技术经济2017，Vol.36Issue(4)：122-130,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2017.04.017
考虑结构突变的大宗商品价格波动对中国经济的影响分析
The Impact of Commodity Prices Volatility on China's Economy Based on Structural Break Test
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the impact of international commodity prices fluctuation on China's e conomy is investigated from the perspective of structural mutation.At first,by e ndogenous multiple structural break Bai-Perron testing method,we find the existe nce of structural break phenomenon in the international crude oil price index,in dustrial inputs(including metals and agricultural products)price index,China's industrial added value growth rate and consumer price index from 1990 to 2015.Then,the structural break of the four indexes is removed by the de-trending meth od,and the dynamic relationship among these four indexes is established by using the structure vector auto regressive(SVAR)model.Impulse response analysis sho ws that if the international crude oil prices rising,it will slow down China's economic growth rate in short term,but in the medium term it has a slight stimul ating effect on the economy,at the same time it will gradually pull the price le vel of China.When the industrial inputs price increases,it will also slow down C hina's economic growth rate,and the price level firstly increases then decrease s.In this paper,by considering the important factor of structural break,the infl uence of international commodity price fluctuation on China's economy can be re vealed more accurately.关键词
结构突变/大宗商品价格/经济增长/物价水平/SVAR模型/脉冲响应Key words
structural break/commodity price/economic growth/price level/SVAR model/impulse response分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王书平,魏晓萌,吴振信..考虑结构突变的大宗商品价格波动对中国经济的影响分析[J].工业技术经济,2017,36(4):122-130,9.基金项目
北京市自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号:9152007). （项目编号:9152007）
