华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）Issue(2)：138-147,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2017.02.017
宁波大榭岛多年一遇高潮位推算方法探讨
A method of estimating high elevation of multi-year return periods
摘要
Abstract
This paper introduced a method of estimating extreme water level of multi-year return periods where observed data were inadequate,with the instance of Daxiedao Petrochemical Zone in Ningbo,Zhejiang.Strong weather processes caused annual maximum elevations in the past 25 years were chosen,modelled and validated based on observed wind and water elevation data of 2 nearby ocean stations,Dinghai and Zhenhai.By using well validated wind data from WRF model and the ADCIRC storm surge model,25 years of annual maximum elevations at Daxiedao Petrochemical Zone were simulated and corrected by using the weight-averaged correlation between the model and observation in 2 ocean stations.The extreme water levei of multi-year return periods was analyzed based on Gumbel distribution assumption and used for the ocean engineering design and risk investigation.关键词
宁波大榭岛/多年一遇高潮位/数值模拟/Gumbel/加权修正Key words
Ningbo Daxiedao/multi-year extreme water level/numerical simulation/Gumbel distribution/Weight-averaged correlation分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
卢思文,潘灵芝,肖文军,龚茂珣,陈昞睿..宁波大榭岛多年一遇高潮位推算方法探讨[J].华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,(2):138-147,10.基金项目
东海分局青年基金(201201) （201201）
海洋公益性行业科研专项(201405022-3) （201405022-3）
上海市科委地方院校能力建设计划项目(15320502200) （15320502200）
