热带气象学报2017，Vol.33Issue(1)：64-73,10.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.01.007
GRAPES_TYM改进及其在2013年西北太平洋和南海台风预报的表现
THE IMPROVEMENTS OF GRAPES_TYM AND ITS PERFORMANCE IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN AND SOUTH CHINA SEA IN 2013
摘要
Abstract
The regional model GRAPES_TYM for TC intensity and track prediction was developed based on the GRAPES-Mesoin 2009 and was put into operational running in 2012.The results of retrospective forecasting in 2011 and results of operational application in 2012 indicated that there exist systematic northward bias of tracks and positive bias of intensity forecast.The above systematic biases were reduced in 2013 through the improvement of the following three aspects:(1) Integration of the improvement from GRAPES-Meso;(2) upgrading of SAS to MESO-SAS;(3) optimization of vortex initialization scheme.Statistical analysis of 7 cases show that the integration of the improvement from GRAPES-Mesocould reduce 72 h average track error by 10％,but the effectswere not obvious for the intensity prediction.Upgrading of SAS to Meso-SAS could reduce 72 h average track error by another 20％,together with the obvious improvement of 12～48 h intensity prediction.Optimization of vortex initialization scheme further reduces 72 h averagetrack error by 10％ and the intensity prediction errors of 6～24 h.The results from the whole cases in 2013 show that 48～72 h average track errors could be reduced by 15％～20％ and the average intensity errors of maximum wind speed could be reduced by 4％ ～16％.关键词
GRAPES_TYM/SAS/涡旋初始化/台风强度/台风路径Key words
GRAPES_TYM/SAS/vortex initialization/typhoon intensity/typhoon track分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张进,麻素红,陈德辉,黄丽萍..GRAPES_TYM改进及其在2013年西北太平洋和南海台风预报的表现[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(1):64-73,10.基金项目
国家公益性行业专项(GYHY201406006)资助 （GYHY201406006）
