热带气象学报2017，Vol.33Issue(1)：74-83,10.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.01.008
基于数值模式的月尺度近地层气象要素预报技术研究
A STUDY ON A MONTHLY FORECASTING METHOD OF METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS NEAR SURFACE BASED ON NUMERICAL MODEL
摘要
Abstract
A non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used toconduct a downscaling monthly forecast based on the products of Climate Forecast System (CFS),made operational at NCEP for the winter from 1 December of 2014 to 28 February of 2015,for continental China to generate 6-hourly predictionsof meteorological elements witha horizontal resolution of 30×30 kilometersfor a valid period of 45 days.The downscaled temperature and relative humidity,both at the 2m height,and wind speed at the 10m height were validated against 2820 national meteorological stations from China Meteorological Administration,and temperature and wind speed at the 70m height were validated against 3 wind masts in Northern China,Southern China and Southwestern China.A linear approach was conducted to all forecasts to correct downscaling bias.The results are shown as follows:(1) The absolute errors of temperature and relative humidity at the 2m height,which was 4.71 ℃ and 18.81％,respectively,were smaller over Eastern China,Middle China and Southern China.(2) The absolute errors of wind speed at the 2m height was 2.42 rn/s and smaller over Northeastem China,Northem China and Northwestern China.(3) The linear correction reduced the temperature at the 2m height from WRF downscaling forecasts by 1.05 ℃ and relative humidity at the 2m height by 5.29％ and wind speed at the 10m height by 1.47 m/s.Besides,statistical correction smoothed forecast bias of temperature,relative humidity and wind speed over the 45 days.(4) The linear corrected wind speed and temperature bias at the 70m height decreased wind speed by 1.29 m/s at thewind mast of site B and temperature by 3 ℃ at the wind mast of site C.This paper presents a promising case for monthly forecast in wind power by using RCM downscaling nested in the CGCM.关键词
风电预报/月尺度/WRF/CFS/统计订正Key words
wind electricity forecast/monthly scale/WRF/CFS/statistical correction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈浩,何晓凤..基于数值模式的月尺度近地层气象要素预报技术研究[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(1):74-83,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41305008) （41305008）
气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015213) （CMAGJ2015213）
国家电网公司科技项目“极端环境条件下强风区输电线路风荷载特性和铁塔结构研究”共同资助 （）
