热带气象学报2017，Vol.33Issue(1)：111-118,8.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.01.012
基于集合预报的四川夏季强降水订正试验
CALIBRATION OF THE ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECAST OF SUMMER HEAVY RAINFALL IN SICHUAN
摘要
Abstract
Because of many uncertain factors,it is difficult to forecast the heavy rainfall-caused floods which happen easily in Sichuan Province.From the cumulative distribution function of the observations and model forecasts,a method that improves the forecast accuracy of heavy rainfall in Sichuan was developed by using the observed rainfall data in June-August during 2007-2012 and the ECMWF ensemble forecast precipitation data in June-August of 2012-2013.It was applied to an experiment of extreme rainfall events in June-August of 2012 in eastern Sichuan Basin.The results show that after calibration,the heavy rain area is more similar to the observation and the forecast period is greatly extended,which is useful for issuing early warnings of heavy rain processes 6～7 days in advance.In short,the method can significantly improve the forecast with the ECMWF model in eastem Sichuan Basin.关键词
集合预报/累积概率/概率阈值法/强降水订正Key words
ensemble forecast/cumulative distribution function/probability threshold method/heavy rain calibration分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曹萍萍,陈朝平,徐栋夫,肖递祥,王佳津,冯良敏..基于集合预报的四川夏季强降水订正试验[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(1):111-118,8.基金项目
2016年度中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2016-062) （CMAYBY2016-062）
2014年度中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2014M48) （CMAGJ2014M48）
2016年度中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160104)共同资助 （CMAHX20160104）
