生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(7)：2169-2178,10.DOI:10.5846/stxb201601080052
气候变化影响与风险研究的理论范式和方法体系
Theory paradigm and a methods system for research on climate change impacts and risks
摘要
Abstract
Adaptation and mitigation measures against climate change impacts and risks,especially global warming threats,have been widely accepted by the governments,scientists,and organizations.However,theories and methods for assessing climate change impacts and risks are not standardized,causing incomparable results for different sectors.Based on the conception of social and structural paradigms developed by Kuhn,this study first proposed the theory paradigm for research on climate change impacts and risks according to the logical ideas of " Vulnerability Separation Uncertainty Risks," and then summarized the corresponding analysis methods,including observations,experiments,models,statistics,and the framework of quantified risk assessment.Furthermore,based on the transferring logic of the four components of theory paradigm,systematic research on the climate change impacts and risks can be accomplished with synthetic application of different analysis methods.This study could be helpful in the advancement of studies on climate change impacts and risks,and enhance their application in tackling climate change.关键词
气候变化影响/研究范式/理论范式/分析方法Key words
climate change impacts/research paradigm/theory paradigm/analysis methods引用本文复制引用
高江波,焦珂伟,吴绍洪,郭灵辉..气候变化影响与风险研究的理论范式和方法体系[J].生态学报,2017,37(7):2169-2178,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41530749,41301089) （41530749,41301089）
国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2015CB452702) （2015CB452702）
国家十二五科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC19B10,2013BAC04B02) （2012BAC19B10,2013BAC04B02）
