海洋预报2017，Vol.34Issue(2)：37-42,6.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2017.02.005
台风路径集合化预报方法的优化
Improvement of ensemble forecast of typhoon track in the Northwestern Pacific
摘要
Abstract
Based on the existing super-ensemble forecast method,an improved method is proposed to further improve the typhoon track forecast accuracy and stability,which is relied on the principle of error-estimation ensemble.The performance of the method is examined by the forecasting of 24-hour of a single typhoon,i.e.‘Soulik’ (No.1307),in the region of northwestern Pacific,and the forecast errors are analyzed in detail.After that,the forecast of all the typhoons over the northwestern Pacific from 2013 to 2015 of 24-hour,48-hour and 72-hour has been conducted by using the improved method to analyze its overall error.The results show that the better accuracy is achieved by the existing method in terms of the single typhoon and the forecast error has reduced by 12.88％、18.40％、30.58％、19.44％、33.72％ compared to the results from the four individual forecast centers and the existing method.The deviation of forecast errors is relatively small compared to that of individual forecast centers.In terms of the whole typhoons from 2013 to 2015 of 24-hour,the average overall forecast errors could be reduced by 2.85％ by the improved method compared with the existing one while the standard deviation of the errors could be reduced by 10.6％.The ensemble forecast error of 48-hour has reduced by 4.38％ compared with the best single center and the 72-hour forecast result is close to the best center and both the results are better than the existing method.It indicates that the improved method could increase the forecast stability remarkably while keeping the same order of accuracy as the existing method.关键词
台风路径/集合预报/预估偏差/误差修正Key words
typhoon track/ensemble forecast/error-estimation ensemble/error correction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
袁杰颖,陈永平,潘毅,董家根,罗俐雅..台风路径集合化预报方法的优化[J].海洋预报,2017,34(2):37-42,6.基金项目
江苏省水利科技项目(2015006). （2015006）
