经济与管理研究2017，Vol.38Issue(5)：96-104,9.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2017.05.010
战略性新兴产业的产能过剩评价与预警研究——以中国光伏产业为例
Overcapacity Assessment and Early Warning of Strategic Emerging Industries-Case Study of Chinese Photovoltaic Industry
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyses the characteristic of strategic emerging industries from expansibility,strategy,emergence and guidance,and builds the evaluation index system of strategic emerging industries` capacity utilization.On the basis of the comprehensive evaluation index,the paper also uses a binary logic regression model to build the early warning system with overcapacity.In the empirical analysis,this paper measures the capacity utilization evaluation index weights and the comprehensive index of Chinese photovoltaic industry,and uses the "front end" index to empirically test and analyze the early warning model of overcapacity.The results show that the influence of the emerging feature of the upstream link of the photovoltaic industry on capacity utilization is greatest,and the influence of the strategic feature is minimal;the prediction accuracy of the overcapacity`s early warning model is 92.9%,which has a good prediction effect.Thus,to resolve and prevent overcapacity in strategic emerging industries,it is necessary to encourage industry-university-research cooperation,improve the supporting facilities of new products,establish a mechanism for releasing information and monitoring capacity,increase the service efficiency of government subsidies,and guide the right direction in social capital.关键词
战略性新兴产业/产能过剩/评价体系/预警模型Key words
strategic emerging industries/overcapacity/evaluation system/early warning model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
余东华,吕逸楠..战略性新兴产业的产能过剩评价与预警研究——以中国光伏产业为例[J].经济与管理研究,2017,38(5):96-104,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"要素价格上涨与环境规制趋紧下的中国制造业转型升级路径研究"(14BJY081) （14BJY081）
山东省自然科学基金项目"横向并购竞争效应模拟分析与反垄断政策研究"(ZR2014GM005) （ZR2014GM005）
