计算机应用与软件2017，Vol.34Issue(2)：272-279,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-386x.2017.02.049
基于GMM改进的信息系统安全态势实时预测研究
RESEARCH ON REAL-TIME FORECAST OF SECURITY POSTURE OF INFORMATION SYSTEM BASED ON IMPROVED GREY-MARKOV CHAIN
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the problem of bad prediction result because of large consumption and time consuming in the existing security posture prediction methods,the information system is real-time forecasted in security posture according to the characteristics of low consumption,small sample,stronger applicability and excellent performance of short-time forecasting of the typical gray GM (1,1) model,considering the problems of large-scale,complex structure and frequent information exchange of information system.Meanwhile,aiming at the problem of low stochastic volatility of GM (1,1)model,an improved GM (1,1) model is built,which combines with the characteristic of larger random fluctuation of Markov chain applies.Thus,using gray GM (1,1) as a prototype of forecast,a real-time forecast of information system security posture is proposed by utilizing the Markov chain to modify the improved GM (1,1) model.The experimental results show that the model is able to predict the overall trend of security posture accurately and is better than the previous Grey-Markov model in the forecast of information systems security posture.关键词
安全态势预测/灰色理论/马尔可夫模型Key words
Security posture forecast/Grey theory/Markov model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
顾兆军,王蕊莉,王帅卿..基于GMM改进的信息系统安全态势实时预测研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2017,34(2):272-279,8.基金项目
民航科技项目(MHRD20140205,MHRD20150233) （MHRD20140205,MHRD20150233）
中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学专项(3122013Z008,3122015D025) （3122013Z008,3122015D025）
2014年民航安全能力建设资金项目(PDSA0008). （PDSA0008）
