南水北调与水利科技2017，Vol.15Issue(2)：9-14,6.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.02.002
年最大洪峰流量群居蜘蛛优化投影寻踪预测模型
Social spider optimization-based projection pursuit model to predict annual maximum flood peak flow
摘要
Abstract
The prediction of annual maximum flood peak flow is affected by many complicated factors and highly indeterminate,making it difficult to deliver accurate forecasts by conventional statistical methods.In this paper,based on hydrological sequence itself,we proposed that the projection regression model be used to predict the annual maximum flood peak flow.In order to obtain the optimal parameters for the projection pursuit model and improve prediction accuracy,we proposed the hybrid intelligence-based prediction model for annual maximum flood peak flow,in which the delay correlation coefficient method was used to determine the regression prediction factor,the social spider optimization algorithm to optimize the optimal projection direction parameter a of the projection pursuit model,the least square method to determine the weight coefficient c of the polynomial,and qualified rate to control the number of parameter M.The annual maximum flood peak flow data of Yichang Gauging Station of Yangtze River (1882-2004) were used to test the proposed model.The results indicated that the model can obtain very good prediction results,with a mean absolute relative error of 8.61% in the training phase,and a mean absolute relative error of 10.51% in the testing phase.The model can produce stable results and can be effectively applied to the prediction of annual maximum flood peak flow.关键词
SSO算法/参数投影寻踪/混合智能/年最大洪峰流量/预测Key words
Social Spider Optimization/parametric projection pursuit/hybrid intelligence/annual maximum flood peak flow/prediction分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王文川,刘惠敏,雷冠军,刘宽,邱林..年最大洪峰流量群居蜘蛛优化投影寻踪预测模型[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(2):9-14,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51509088) （51509088）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501008) （201501008）
水资源高效利用与保障工程河南省协同创新中心(2013CICWP-HN) （2013CICWP-HN）
河南省高校科技创新团队(14IRTSTHN028) （14IRTSTHN028）
National Natural Science Foundation of China(51509088) （51509088）
The Scientific Research Fund for Public Welfare Industry Ministry of Water Conservancy Projects(201501008) （201501008）
Collaborative Innovation Center And Ensure the Efficient Use of Water Resources Projects in Henan Province(2013CICWP-HN) （2013CICWP-HN）
Henan Province Science and Technology Innovation Team(14IRTSTHN028) （14IRTSTHN028）
