青岛大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.30Issue(1)：14-20,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1037.2017.02.04
新二胎政策下基于Leslie矩阵等数学模型的山东省人口预测
Population Forecast of Shandong Province with Chinese new Two-child Policy Based on Leslie Matrix and Other Mathematic Models
摘要
Abstract
Based on the population data of Shandong province from 2004 to 2014, as well as using genetic principles, the Leslie population forecasting model which is applicable for separate two-child policy is established and put into use for analysis and prediction of the population of different ages in Shandong province until 2054.Then, based on the data of childbearing desire, the Leslie model which is applicable to universal two-child policy is established and the prediction results are obtained.In order to study the influence of two-child policy on the number of newborn, two factors, the education level and per capita disposable income, are used to solve the fertility willingness of women of childbearing age in Shandong Province, so as to predict the growth of children in recent two years.By comparing the predictions of different policies and the prediction of number of newborns, it is concluded that separate two-child policy has a stabilizing effect on the population of Shandong Province in short term.But in the long term, the lag effect on aging population is poor.However, universal two-child policy will bring long-term effect on population retain, especially on the maintenance of working-age population.But the number of newborns shows a rapid rising trend in the short term, suggesting that construction of children's infrastructure should be strengthened.关键词
遗传学模型/Leslie预测模型/"全面二孩"政策/"单独二孩"政策/人口预测Key words
genetic model/Leslie population forecasting model/universal two-child policy/separate two-child policy/prediction of population分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
吕俊兴,徐天琛,王辉,唐煜..新二胎政策下基于Leslie矩阵等数学模型的山东省人口预测[J].青岛大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,30(1):14-20,7.基金项目
苏州大学第十八批大学生课外学术科研基金重点项目(批准号:KY2016047A)资助. （批准号:KY2016047A）
