热带气象学报2017，Vol.33Issue(2)：241-249,9.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.02.010
多模式集合优选方案在淮河流域夏季降水预测中的应用
APPLICATION OF OPTIMIZATION SCHEME OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE IN PREDICTION OF THE HUAIHE RIVER BASIN SUMMER PRECIPITATION
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of four seasonal climate models supplied by the National Climate Centre,two methods of choosing complementary downscaling factors are applied in predicting Huaihe River Basin summer precipitation,effects of every model and downscaling method predicting the precipitation are evaluated by comprehensively utilizing anomaly sign consistency rate,grading evaluation and anomaly correlation coefficient methods,and an optimization scheme is applied for ensemble.The results show that seen from effects of model precipitation prediction,the CFS and TCC models are better,while the NCC and EC models are relatively insufficient;and after downscaling by the two methods based on optimal subset regression,the downscaling results of the NCC,TCC and EC models have higher scores than their original precipitation prediction thanthe CFS model;by using optimal choice between model prediction and downscaling results,the effect of the final ensemble results isfound to be better than a simple ensemble of model prediction or that of model downscaling.This optimization scheme has the advantages of different regional modes and helps improvethe predicting effect of original model ensemble and can be a reference method to improve the technical level of multi-model interpretation and application.关键词
气候学/模式解释应用/优选法/夏季降水/淮河流域Key words
climatology/model interpretation and application/optimization scheme/summer precipitation/Huaihe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
程智,段春锋,邓淑梅..多模式集合优选方案在淮河流域夏季降水预测中的应用[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(2):241-249,9.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406021) （气象）
安徽省自然科学基金(1408085MD73)共同资助 （1408085MD73）
