热带气象学报2017，Vol.33Issue(2)：281-288,8.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.02.015
广东省台风灾害风险综合评估
EVALUATION OF TYPHOON DISASTER RISK IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE
摘要
Abstract
The typhoon disaster risk in Guangdong province is evaluated according to a general risk assessment formula by using typhoon data during 1951-2010 and population and statistical data of 2010.GIS technique is also applied to analyze the classification and distribution of each index.We evaluate typhoon disaster risk by establishing typhoon path buffers and calculate the typhoon hazard index.The population and GDP are used to indicate disaster exposure.Five indicators are selected to characterize susceptibility of two receptors,population and social assets.Then the vulnerable index is calculated by using the above results.Finally,the risk of typhoon disasters of Guangdong Province can be calculated by the index of hazard and the index of vulnerability.The results show that:the impact of Typhoon on Guangdong Province shows a decreasing trend from western Guangdong coastal to the inland,and coastal typhoon risk is the highest;exposure of population in Guangzhou and Zhanjiang belong to the highest level,while exposure of economic and social assets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is classified into the highest level;cities with higher level population susceptibility index tend to have higher dependency ratio,women population ratio and lower disposable income per capita;high value of social assets susceptibility index means relatively low level of economic advancement;with high susceptibility,population of Zhanjiang and Shanwei is the most vulnerable,and the well-developed cities,such as Guangzhou and Dongguan,though their susceptibility index is relatively low,have very high exposure value so that the vulnerability indexes are relatively high.According to the evaluation,the current three cities with the highest typhoon risk are Zhanjiang,Guangzhou and Foshan.The result of this risk assessment can provide decision support for disaster risk management in Guangdong Province.关键词
台风灾害/风险评估/脆弱性/GIS/广东省Key words
typhoon disaster/risk assessment/vulnerability/GIS/Guangdong Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张悦,李珊珊,陈灏,杨崧,陈峰..广东省台风灾害风险综合评估[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(2):281-288,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41661144019) （41661144019）
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2014085) （2014085）
江苏省气候变化协同创新中心部分共同资助 （）
