人民长江2017，Vol.48Issue(7)：36-40,5.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2017.07.008
基于GLUE的垂向混合产流模型参数不确定性分析
Uncertainty analysis of vertical mixed runoff model parameters with GLUE method
摘要
Abstract
Hydrological model can generalize the complicated hydrological phenomenon and processes, and the uncertainty of hydrological models is one of the important directions of the model research.Based on the 5 years' runoff data of Luohe River Basin in semi-humid area, we established a vertical mixed runoff hydrological model and analyzed its uncertainty by using GLUE method and combining with 5 relevant indicators.The results show that in uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization for the vertical mixed runoff model by GLUE method, under the confidence level of 95%, the model forecast interval coverage reaches 87.5%, the parameter S and T are closed to 0, which means that the simulated data have great degree of symmetry.关键词
垂向混合产流模型/GLUE方法/置信度/预报区间/不确定性分析Key words
vertical mixed runoff model/GLUE method/confidence level/forecast interval/uncertainty analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡高辉,杨涛,李振亚..基于GLUE的垂向混合产流模型参数不确定性分析[J].人民长江,2017,48(7):36-40,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41371051,51421006) （41371051,51421006）
中法合作基金NSFS-ANR项目(L41561134016) （L41561134016）
中科院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-12) （KZZD-EW-12）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501032) （201501032）
