人民长江2017，Vol.48Issue(7)：70-73,4.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2017.07.015
基于ISM和D-S证据理论的脚手架坍塌致因诊断
Diagnosis of causes of scaffold collapse based on ISM and D-S evidence theory
摘要
Abstract
In order to prevent scaffold collapse, ISM and D-S evidence theory are used to analyze the causes of collapse accident.Firstly, the main cause indexes of the accident are selected and ladder structure of the cause indexes are established by ISM that can realize abstraction of the cause indexes.Then, the source of evidence is determined by building the framework for the identification of cause indexes.The basic probability assignment functions of cause indexes are obtained after the influential degree of causes are confirmed.finally, the evidence fusion rule is used to synthesize the expert's information and quantify the influential degree of the cause indexes, so the key cause is determined.The proposed method is applied to the cause analysis of the scaffold collapse at the construction site of high slope in a hydropower station in Yunnan Province.The results show that violated operation is the main direct cause;the design error and unqualified construction are the indirect cause;the imperfect safety responsibility system is the in-depth cause.The results are in agreement with the actual facts, which verifies reliability of the method.关键词
安全工程/事故致因/ISM方法/D-S证据理论/脚手架坍塌Key words
safety engineering/accident cause/ISM/D-S evidence theory/scaffold collapse分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郑霞忠,吴凯,陈述,费晓春..基于ISM和D-S证据理论的脚手架坍塌致因诊断[J].人民长江,2017,48(7):70-73,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51379110) （51379110）
