水科学进展2017，Vol.28Issue(2)：161-173,13.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.02.001
北京地区降水极值时空演变特征
Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation extremes in Beijing
摘要
Abstract
To achieve scientific evaluation and understanding the changes in precipitation pattern and the spatiotem-poral variation in precipitation extremes for urban areas in a changing environment, we analyzed the spatial and tempo-ral distribution and the change characteristics of the precipitation extremes in Beijing. The statistical results for the storm with different durations from the Heavy Rain Atlases in Beijing and the daily precipitation data ( from June to September) from 45 rain-gauged stations over Beijing during 1960—2012 were used in this study. The annual maxi-mum value method and the percentile threshold value method were selected to define the precipitation extremes, and six durations storm ( e. g. 10 min, 30 min, 1 h, 6 h, 24 h, and 72 h) and three extreme precipitation indices ( fre-quency, precipitation amount, and contribution ratio) under the two thresholds (95% and 99%). The results showed that: ① The spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Beijing was affected by the topographic features and ur-banization, with some high-value centers of extreme precipitation for these special areas ( e. g. urban areas, the inter-face between the mountainous area and the plain areas) , which was consistent with the annual precipitation; ② All the extreme precipitation indices have significant decreasing trends during 1960—2012, with a rate of 0. 13/10 a (0. 04/10 a) for the frequency of extreme precipitation events, 11. 59 mm/10 a (5. 28 mm/10 a) for the extreme precipitation amount, and 2%/10 a (1%/10 a) for the contribution ratio of extreme precipitation, respectively, under the 95th (99th) percentile threshold;③The changes in the two periods (1960—1985 and 1986—2012) between the urban and suburban areas were different due to the impact of urbanization on extreme precipitation. The frequency of extreme precipitation events in the suburban areas was higher than that of urban areas during the 1960—1985, but the other two indices in the suburban areas were lower than urban areas. However, all the three indices in the urban area were higher than that in suburban areas during the period of 1986—2012.关键词
极端降水/时空变异/降水结构/北京地区Key words
extreme precipitation/spatio-temporal variation/precipitation pattern/Beijing分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
宋晓猛,张建云,孔凡哲,王国庆,贺瑞敏,朱奎..北京地区降水极值时空演变特征[J].水科学进展,2017,28(2):161-173,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51609242) （51609242）
水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金(2015490411) （2015490411）
中国矿业大学中央高校基本科研业务费(2015XKMS034) The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51609242) . （2015XKMS034）
