水科学进展2017，Vol.28Issue(2)：213-222,10.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.02.006
长江口北支倒灌影响区盐度预测经验模型
An empirical predictive model for saltwater intrusion in the South Branch influenced by tidal flow from the North Branch in the Yangtze River Estuary
摘要
Abstract
To predict the intensity of saltwater intrusion under different riverine discharge, a new empirical model was developed to predict the chlorinity in the upper South Branch of the Yangtze River Estuary, where saltwater intrusion is strongly affected by tidal flow from the North Branch. In the model, only runoff at Datong station and lunar calendar date were required as variables. Firstly, the changes of daily mean tidal range was investigated with measuring data at Xuliujing . Using the theory of harmonic analysis with 11 main tidal components, it was proved that the daily mean tid-al range changes every half-month. Thus, a new method was proposed to estimate the daily mean tidal range by using the lunar calendar. Secondly, the quantitative relationships between chlorinity and riverine discharge, tidal range were developed using the measured data at Dongfengxisha. Some functions in previous empirical models were examined to test their effectiveness under the condition of saltwater intrusion from the sub-branch channel. Finally, an empirical model was proposed in the form of exponential function to describe the chlorinity under different riverine discharge and tidal range conditions. The predicted chlorinity process at Dongfengxisha was in good agreement with the observations, with the correlation degree of up to 0. 8. Using the proposed model in this study, intensity of saltwater intrusion at a certain location can be estimated with simple input data, which provides a convenient method to conduct prediction of saltwater intrusion.关键词
长江口/盐水倒灌/径流/潮差/预测模型Key words
Yangtze River Estuary/saltwater intrusion/riverine discharge/tidal range/predictive model分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
孙昭华,严鑫,谢翠松,李奇..长江口北支倒灌影响区盐度预测经验模型[J].水科学进展,2017,28(2):213-222,10.基金项目
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2014ZX07104-005) The study is financially supported by the Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment of China(No. 2014ZX07104-005) . （2014ZX07104-005）
