水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(3)：99-103,118,6.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.03.018
基于云模型与证据理论的大坝安全综合评估方法
Cloud model and evidence theory-based method for comprehensive assessment on dam safety
摘要
Abstract
There are so many factors of impacts on the working behavior of dam,of which the characteristics of their attributes are diverse with complicated inter-relationships among them,thus the comprehensive assessment on its safety condition is just a typical uncertainty question.Under full consideration of both the fuzziness and randomness in the process of the safety assessment on dam,a multi-index comprehensive method for dam safety assessment is studied herein by combining cloud model with D-S evidence theory.In accordance with the multi-index system of dam safety assessment and the safety classification standard,the determination of the basic probability assignment in D-S evidence theory is realized with cloud model,and then is improved based on D-S evidence theory,with which a dam safety comprehensive assessment model is made up,while the corresponding method to realize the comprehensive assessment is put forward as well.The reasonability and feasibility of the method mentioned herein are verified through its application to the analysis made on an actual engineering case.The actual case shows that through the combined use of both cloud model and D-S evidence theory,the impact from the uncertainty on its result during the process of the assessment is effectively lowered,thus a feasible way and idea is provided for the multi-index comprehensive assessment on dam safety.关键词
大坝安全/综合评估/云模型/D-S证据理论Key words
dam safety/comprehensive assessment/cloud model/D-S evidence theory分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郭芝韵,苏怀智,刘炳锐,储冬冬..基于云模型与证据理论的大坝安全综合评估方法[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(3):99-103,118,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51579083,51479054,41323001) （51579083,51479054,41323001）
中央高校基本科研业务费专业资金(2015B25414) （2015B25414）
