水土保持通报2017，Vol.37Issue(1)：137-142,6.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.025
基于数量化理论Ⅲ的滑坡变形组合预测研究
Forecasting Deformation Combination of Landslide Based on Third Theory of Quantification
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] To explore the applicability of the combined forecasting model based on the third theory of quantification in combined landslide deformation and to provide a new idea for forecasting the combined landslide deformation.[Methods] We used GM(1,1),support vector machine,BP neural network and MC prediction as a single prediction model of landslide deformation,and applied the third theory of quantification to analyze the importance of relative error interval and single prediction,and then determine the interval weights and the prediction error between groups,thus determining the combination weights of comprehensive prediction.[Results] The average value of relative error of combined prediction was 1.1％ and the variance was 0.16.[Conclusion] Compare to single forecast model,the forecast accuracy and stability of combined prediction had been greatly improved.关键词
滑坡/组合预测/数量化理论Ⅲ/权重Key words
landslide/combination forecast/third theory of quantification/weight分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
谌伟,郝付军..基于数量化理论Ⅲ的滑坡变形组合预测研究[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(1):137-142,6.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项“波纹钢腹板钢-混组合梁新型剪力连接件研究”(310821161118) （310821161118）
