畜牧兽医学报2017，Vol.48Issue(4)：690-698,9.DOI:10.11843/j.issn.0366-6964.2017.04.012
肉牛胃肠道甲烷排放模型估算精度的评估分析
Evaluating the Accuracy of Models to Predict Enteric Methane Emissions in Beef Cattle
摘要
Abstract
This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of 6 classic models to predict the enteric methane emissions in beef cattle and analyze the factors affecting predictive accuracy of models.Seventeen Xiangzhong Black cattle were selected in the Hunan Wangcheng beef farm,to measure body weight,dry matter and nutrients intake,enteric methane emissions in two stages.The selected 6 classic models included:equations developed by dry matter intake (DMI),such as Model1[CH4(MJ· d-1) =1.246 × DMI(kg· d-1) + 0.996] andModel2 [CH4(MJ· d-1) = -2.07 + 2.636 × DMI(kg· d-1)-0.105 × DMI2(kg· d-1)];equations developed by fiber intake,such as Model 3 [CH4 (MJ · d-1) =5.58 + 0.848 × NDF(kg · d-1)] and Model 4 [CH4(MJ · d 1)=3.41+0.520 × DMI(kg · d 1)-0.996 × ADF(kg · d-1) +-1.15 × NDF (kg· d-1)];equations developed by gross energy intake (GEI),such as Model 5 [CH4(MJ · d-1)=0.065×GEI(MJ · d 1)] and Model 6 [CH4(MJ · d-1)=0.081×GEI(MJ · d-1)-0.024].Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) and Consistent Correlation Coefficient (CCC) methods were employed to evaluate the prediction accuracy,and factors influencing the accuracy were also discussed.The result showed that:Model 5 (CCC=0.86) had the highest prediction accuracy among 6 models,next for Model 1 (CCC=0.74) and 6 (CCC=0.79),the lowest for Model 2 (CCC-0.66),3 (CCC=0.22) and 4 (CCC=0.54).Model 1 and 2 had overall bias of 48.8 ％ and 70.3 ％,respectively.Model 3 had greatest deviation of regression slope from unity (47.6％),while Model 4 had 28.6％ deviation of regression slope from unity and 29.2％ overall bias.The current results indicate that Model 5 developed by GEI based on worldwide data by IPCC (2006) Tier 2 is the most accurate model to predict the enteric methane emissions in beef cattle.关键词
甲烷/预测误差均方/一致性相关系数/肉牛Key words
methane/Mean Squared Prediction Error/Consistent Correlation Coefficient/beef cattle分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
毛宏祥,高凤仙,王敏,蒋载阳,张秀敏,龙栋磊,王荣,谭支良..肉牛胃肠道甲烷排放模型估算精度的评估分析[J].畜牧兽医学报,2017,48(4):690-698,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31561143009 （）
31472133) （）
国家科技计划项目(2016YFD0500504) （2016YFD0500504）
湖南省科技计划项目(2015WK3043) （2015WK3043）
中国科学院青年促进会项目 （）
