中国电机工程学报2017，Vol.37Issue(7)：1937-1945,9.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.160190
基于连续时间马尔可夫退化过程的牵引供电设备可靠性预测方法研究
Research on Reliability Prediction Method for Traction Power Supply Equipment Based on Continuous Time Markov Degradation Process
摘要
Abstract
Reliability prediction is one of the key researches in the active maintenance technology for traction power supply system, which can provide foundation for the equipment operation and maintenance decision-making. A reliability prediction method for traction power supply equipment based on continuous time Markov degradation process was proposed. Based on continuous Markov process and IEEE standard, the equipment state was classified into four levels, i.e., normal, attentive, abnormal, and failure. The state duration and transition rate were obtained through equipment failure record. Then the uniform acceleration technique was applied to calculate reliability parameters, and the number of equipment in each state could be predicted. The 27.5kV vacuum breakers in practical operation were taken as examples to prove the validity of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method can not only predict the reliability of large-scale identical equipment in traction power supply system using historical data, but also achieve reasonable results, providing valuable supports for maintenance decision-making of traction power supply system.关键词
牵引供电设备/可靠性预测/马尔可夫过程/状态划分/均匀加速技术Key words
traction power supply equipment/reliability prediction/Markov process/state division/uniform acceleration technique分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
冯玎,林圣,张奥,孙小军,秦娜,何正友..基于连续时间马尔可夫退化过程的牵引供电设备可靠性预测方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(7):1937-1945,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U1234203、51525702),广东省省级科技计划项(2015B010128002). Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (U1234203, 51525702), Guangzhou Science and Technology Program Key Projects (2015B010128002). （U1234203、51525702）
