中国电机工程学报2017，Vol.37Issue(7)：1946-1954,9.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.160278
基于新型人体舒适度的气象敏感负荷短期预测研究
Weather-Sensitive Load's Short-Term Forecasting Research Based on New Human Body Amenity Indicator
摘要
Abstract
The severe air condition with fog and haze presents a challenge to power system short-term load forecasting. Basing on existing human body amenity indicator, a new concept of human body amenity considering AQI, temperature, humidity and wind was presented while analytic hierarchy process(AHP) &Entropy were used to construct the human comfort index model considering temporal-spatial distribution. After that, a new arithmetic of random forests was adopted in building forecasting model, in which an optimized discretization method was used for dealing with continuous variables. Meanwhile, the similar load days needed in power load forecasting were extracted basing on amenity indexes. And the comfort indicator was taken as input of forecasting model. The effectiveness and validity of proposed model and algorithm were verified by practical load data and weather data of two cities in China.关键词
人体舒适度/雾霾/时空分布特性/AHP-熵权法/改进随机森林算法Key words
human body amenity indicator/fog and haze/temporal-spatial distribution/analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-entropy/improved random forests分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
高亚静,孙永健,杨文海,啜斌,梁海峰,李鹏..基于新型人体舒适度的气象敏感负荷短期预测研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(7):1946-1954,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51607068),北京市自然科学基金项目(3164051),国家863高技术基金项目(2015AA050104). Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51607068), Beijing Natural Science Foundation (3164051), The National High Technology Research and Development of China 863 Program (2015AA050104). （51607068）
