中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(4)：23-31,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170329
土地供给、房价与中国人口半城镇化
Land supply, housing prices and peri-urbanization in China
摘要
Abstract
China's housing prices have risen rapidly for nearly ten years, followed by the high rate of peri-urbanization.In reaction to this phenomenon, employing two stages least square method and using land supply as instrumental variable of housing prices with panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2014, this article studies the impact of housing prices on peri-urbanization theoretically as well as positively, and overcomes the endogenous problem of econometric models.Our results show that that the reduction of land supply pushes up housing prices, and then rising housing prices drive up the rate of peri-urbanization and hinder the urbanization of agricultural transferred population.The rate of peri-urbanization would rise about 0.189 4% if housing prices increase 1%.Without controlling the endogenous problem, the impact of housing prices on peri-urbanization will be underestimated significantly.Noticeably,the central government has reduced land supply in the eastern cities and increased land supply in the Midwest relatively since 2003, which is the key to pushing up housing prices and the rate of peri-urbanization in the eastern of China.In addition, we also found that both the development of foreign trade and human capital are beneficial to the decrease of the rate of peri-urbanization.Conversely, the supporting ability of finance and the reform of Hukou system have negative effect.Therefore, in order to reduce the rate of peri-urbanization, we put forward following three suggestions.Firstly, adjust the land supply policy, improve the housing supply system and prevent housing rising too fast.Thus, we should increase land supply in the East, especially in big cities, and make sure that the land supply is compatible with the migrant and the economic development.At the same time, it is necessary to increase the supply of low-rent house and affordable house.Secondly, we should develop foreign trade and promote the accumulation of human capital, which could create more job opportunities and increase people's income.Finally, deepen the reform of Hukou registration system and loosen the registration conditions for the agricultural transferred population.关键词
人口半城镇化/房价/工具变量/土地供给Key words
peri-urbanization/housing prices/instrumental variable/land supply分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
文乐,彭代彦,覃一冬..土地供给、房价与中国人口半城镇化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(4):23-31,9.基金项目
湖北省社会科学基金一般项目"偏向中西部的土地供给政策如何推升了房价"(批准号:2015198) （批准号:2015198）
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(批准号:HUST-2014WZ06). （批准号:HUST-2014WZ06）
