空间科学学报2017，Vol.37Issue(3)：262-269,8.DOI:10.11728/cjss2017.03.262
太阳质子事件中短期预报模型研究
Study on the Short to Medium Term Forecast Model of Solar Proton Event
崔延美 1师立勤 1刘四清2
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学院国家空间科学中心 北京100190
- 2. 中国科学院大学 北京100049
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Solar proton event forecast is very important to guarantee the security of spacecrafts and astronauts.According to the short to medium term space mission,the solar proton fluences whose energy are greater than 10 MeV,30MeV and 60 MeV are statistically analyzed.It is found that the probability of solar proton fluences has a normal distribution,and their standard deviations and expectations are logarithmic functions over different time period from Day 1 to 365.Consequently,a short to medium term forecast model of solar proton fluences is built,which can forecast the solar proton fluences whose energy are greater than 10 MeV,30 MeV and 60 MeV with certain confidence levels for different time period.Therefore,this model is very helpful to safely carry out the space mission which task period is less than 1 year.关键词
太阳质子事件/太阳质子通量/中短期预报模型/航天任务Key words
Solar proton events/Solar proton fluence/Short to medium term forecast model/Space mission分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
崔延美,师立勤,刘四清..太阳质子事件中短期预报模型研究[J].空间科学学报,2017,37(3):262-269,8.
