空间科学学报2017，Vol.37Issue(3)：298-311,14.DOI:10.11728/cjss2017.03.298
地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型
Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit
摘要
Abstract
The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to develop an empirical model to predict relativistic electron fluxes at the geostationary orbit.This model uses the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic index to forecast the EOF-coefficient,and then gives the 5min prediction results of relativistic electron differential fluxes during the coming day according to the EOF base function.By comparing with the original relativistic electron data obtained by GOES 10 from January 2003 to June 2006,it is found that the model is capable of approximately reconstructing the real changes of relativistic electron fluxes and of effectively forecasting their 5 min variations.The mean prediction efficiency of this model is 67％.关键词
地球同步轨道/相对论电子微分通量/经验正交函数Key words
Geostationary orbit/Relativistic electron differential flux/Orthogonal function analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李胜,黄文耿,刘四清,钟秋珍..地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型[J].空间科学学报,2017,37(3):298-311,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目资助(2016YFB0501503) （2016YFB0501503）
