空间科学学报2017，Vol.37Issue(3)：312-321,10.DOI:10.11728/cjss2017.03.312
空间目标预警阈值确定分析
Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects
摘要
Abstract
The method of collision probability is usually used to realize the work of collision assessment and warning of space objects,thus improving accuracy of collision assessment and warning is very important.The collision probability criterion is collision probability threshold.By investigating and analyzing the related bibliography from both domestic and international researchers,a comprehensive description on determination of collision probability threshold of space objects is presented.The determination of covariance matrix,the calculation of collision probability and the flux calculation of debris are introduced in detail.Taking International Space Station (ISS) for instance,of which,the debris flux was calculated and the incidence from space environment was analyzed.The conclusion that collision probability threshold of ISS may be overrated is reached by comparing with previous results.关键词
空间目标/碰撞预警/误差协方差/碎片通量/碰撞概率Key words
Space objects/Collision warning/Covariance error/Space debris flux/Collision probability分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周威萍,沈鸣,郭效忠,高鹏骐,赵有..空间目标预警阈值确定分析[J].空间科学学报,2017,37(3):312-321,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U1231114)和国家重大科研装备研制项目(ZDYZ2013-2)共同资助 （U1231114）
