水利学报2017，Vol.48Issue(4)：379-389,11.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160281
非平稳时间序列极值统计模型及其在气候-水文变化研究中的应用综述
Progresses on statistical modeling of non-stationary extreme sequences and its application in climate and hydrological change
摘要
Abstract
In the context of global warming and average rise in sea level,obvious changes are witnessed with regard to the frequency and intensity of major extreme weather and climate events.Climate change has become an important cause of non-stationarity in hydrology.Several approaches have been proposed to tackle non-stationarity of hydro-meteorological extremes in the literatures.The structures and extreme inference methods of non-stationary sequences model applied usually in climate and hydrology change are summarized in this paper.Some typical examples in statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary hydrologic sequences are analyzed.The applications demonstrate that changes of hydrology variables according to time or covariates can be reflected by statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary sequences,and the return period and risk assessment for non-stationary situations can be quite different from those corresponding to stationary conditions.Finally,perspectives on statistical modeling of extremes of non-stationary sequences are proposed.关键词
非平稳性/极值统计建模/气候变化/水文时间序列/协变量Key words
non-stationary/statistical modeling of extreme values/climate change/hydrological sequences/covariate分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
鲁帆,肖伟华,严登华,王浩..非平稳时间序列极值统计模型及其在气候-水文变化研究中的应用综述[J].水利学报,2017,48(4):379-389,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB036406) （973计划）
国家自然科学基金项目(51679252) （51679252）
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFA0601503) （2016YFA0601503）
