电力系统自动化2017，Vol.41Issue(9)：12-18,7.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170109001
高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望
Morphological Evolution Model and Power Forecasting Prospect of Future Electric Power Systems with High Proportion of Renewable Energy
摘要
Abstract
In the midst of clean, low-carbon and smart energy revolution, a high proportion of renewable energy integration will be one of the basic characteristics of future electric power system that leads to tremendous changes in the morphological changes.And it also introduces the morphological evolution of generation, transmission, distribution and load of the system as a whole.The topology evolution model and power forecasting method of the future electric power systems are reviewed.The elements of the electric power system morphology and driving model are described first.Then based on analyzing the development trend of high proportion renewable energy generations, a future power system morphological evolution model is proposed.Key scientific issues are concluded as: 1) morphological evolution mechanism of power system with a high proportion of renewable energy;2) power forecasting of complex multiple uncertainty operation scenarios.Suitable research framework is divided into four aspects and analyzed in detail.关键词
高比例可再生能源/结构形态演变/广义负荷预测/驱动力模型Key words
high proportion of renewable energy/morphological evolution/generalized load forecasting/driving model引用本文复制引用
鲁宗相,黄瀚,单葆国,王耀华,杜松怀,黎静华..高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(9):12-18,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0900101).This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2016YFB0900101). （2016YFB0900101）
