交通信息与安全2017，Vol.35Issue(1)：55-61,70,8.DOI:10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2017.01.007
高速公路危化品事件处置持续时间预测模型
A Treatment Duration Prediction Model of Hazardous Chemicals Traffic Accidents on Freeways
摘要
Abstract
To support emergency handling of hazardous chemicals transportation on freeways,using historical data, a precise treatment duration prediction model of hazardous chemicals traffic accidents is proposed.First,based on accident characteristics analysis,impact factors of duration are preliminarily selected.Next,correlation tests for each factor by Spearman rank correlation coefficient are carried out,and it finds out that the characteristics and leakage of hazardous chemicals and the number of needed barge trucks are typical impact factors,and they can be used as prediction model's in-puts.Then,the prediction model is developed on the basis of TSK fuzzy inference system and ANFIS method.According to the case study and its error analysis,the calculated values are in good agreement with the measured values.Besides, the reasonable amount of input parameters of this model ensures the model′s operability.Therefore,the model and its ap-plication can provide necessary references for emergency rescue of hazardous chemicals traffic accidents.关键词
高速公路危化品事件/持续时间预测/相关性分析/ANFIS方法Key words
hazardous chemicals traffic accidents on freeway/duration prediction/correlation test/method of AN-FIS分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
陈程,张兰芳,汪尚天..高速公路危化品事件处置持续时间预测模型[J].交通信息与安全,2017,35(1):55-61,70,8.基金项目
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAG01B05)资助 （2014BAG01B05）
