生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(9)：2869-2879,11.DOI:10.5846/stxb201602010232
碳税和硫税治理下中国未来的碳排放趋势
Future carbon emissions trends under carbon and sulfur taxation governance in China
摘要
Abstract
The effect of carbon and sulfur taxation on the economy and emission reduction has been simulated based on the climate governance in the present study.The results showed that under the baseline scenario,China's economy will keep growing,and the GDP will reach $69.95 trillion in 2100.Carbon emissions present Environmental Kuznets Curve characteristics,and a peak will appear in 2034 at a value of 3832 MtC.Under the taxation governance strategy,regardless of sulfur or carbon taxation,China's GDP will be affected;however,carbon emissions will be simultaneously reduced.Levying carbon and sulfur taxes simultaneously will reduce carbon emissions significantly.The peak carbon emissions value of 3111 MtC,decreased to 721 MtC from the carbon emissions peak value in the baseline scenario.Based on the current trend,the carbon emissions peak will appear in 2031.The carbon emissions are three years in advance of the baseline scenario,and,if they continue on the following trend,will fulfill the promise of carbon peak around 2030.关键词
碳排放/动态CGE/经济影响Key words
carbon emissions/dynamic CGE/economic effects引用本文复制引用
黄蕊,刘昌新,王铮..碳税和硫税治理下中国未来的碳排放趋势[J].生态学报,2017,37(9):2869-2879,11.基金项目
国家重大研究计划(973)项目(气候变化经济过程的复杂性机制、新型集成评估模型簇与政策模拟平台研发2012CB955800) （973）
南京师范大学青年人才科研培育项目(15QNPY10) （15QNPY10）
江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目(16KJB170003) （16KJB170003）
