大气科学2017，Vol.41Issue(3)：544-560,17.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1607.16153
RegCM3CORDEX东亚试验模拟和预估的中国夏季温度变化
Simulated and Projected Surface Air Temperature over China in RegCM3 CORDEX East Asia Experiments
摘要
Abstract
The regional climate model (version 3,RegCM3) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km was employed to downscale the historical climate change and projected its future scenario over CORDEX (COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) East Asian domain.Model RegCM3 was nested within the global climate system model FGOALS-g2.The simulation of summer surface air temperature and extreme high-temperature events over China was evaluated first,and summer surface air temperature changes under the RCP8.5 scenario over China were then compared between model RegCM3 and model FGOALS-g2.Results indicate that both models reasonably reproduced the climatological distribution of surface air temperature and extreme high-temperature events.Compared to the driving global climate model,the detailed characteristics of summer surface air temperature were better simulated in model RegCM3 due to its high horizontal resolution.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,summer surface air temperature over China will increase significantly during the middle of the 21st century.In the projection of model FGOALS-g2,the spatial patterns of the changes in the three temperature indices were similar with larger increases over northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau.In addition,the range of changes in daily temperature is small in model FGOALS-g2.However,model RegCM3 projected a larger increase in daily maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to the increase in daily minimum temperature (Train) over most regions of China,thereby daily temperature range would become large in these regions.In the western Tibetan Plateau,the projected increase in Tmin was larger than that in Tmax and daily temperature range became smaller.Extreme high-temperature events were projected to increase significantly in both models.Warm days (TX90p) will increase more than 60％ compared to present day,while the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) will become twice of that of present day.关键词
夏季地表气温/极端高温事件/区域模式/气候变化Key words
Summer surface air temperature/Extreme high-temperature events/Regional climate model/Climate change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李东欢,周天军,邹立维,马双梅..RegCM3CORDEX东亚试验模拟和预估的中国夏季温度变化[J].大气科学,2017,41(3):544-560,17.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201506012,国家自然科学基金项目41420104006、41330423,气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学)开放课题KLME1505,江苏省气候变化协同创新中心项目 （气象）
Chinese R&D Special Fund (Meteorology) for Public Welfare Industry (Grant GYHY201506012),National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41420104006 and 41330423),Open Project of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology) (Grant KLME1505),Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change （Meteorology）
