干旱地区农业研究2017，Vol.35Issue(2)：263-270,8.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.02.42
近50年陇东黄土高原干旱特征及未来变化趋势分析
Drought characteristics and trend in Longdong Loess Plateau in recent 50 years
摘要
Abstract
Based on monthly precipitation and temperature data from 13 meteorological stations,the characteristics of drought in Longdong Loess Plateau were studied by means of different scales of Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,Mann-kendall test,R/S methods and Markov chain.The results showed that over the past 50 years,linear trend of SPEI in Longdong Loess Plateau was less than 0,which indicated the drought trend was very obvious,especially since 1990 s.Mann-kendall abrupt analysis confirmed that the drought trend was significant since 1990s.According to the wavelet analysis,the main periods of the SPEI in interannual scale were 19 a,11 a,7 a,4 a,2 a;the main periods of the SPEI in the monthly scale were 17,25,35,10 and 6 months.Hurst of SPEI12 in R/S prediction analysis,was 0.64 ＞0.5,and auto correlation coefficient was Rt ＞0.So in the next period of time,the drought trend would continue.According to Markov model,the probability of drought extremes would increase in the evolution process of drought state,and Persistenceof severe drought state would increase.关键词
陇东黄土高原/SPEI/小波分析/R/S分析法/马尔科夫预测Key words
longdong loess plateau/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)/wavelet analysis/R/S methods/markov chain分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张耀宗,张勃,刘艳艳,张多勇,贾艳青,唐敏,王国强,马彬..近50年陇东黄土高原干旱特征及未来变化趋势分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(2):263-270,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41561024,31460090) （41561024,31460090）
高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20136203110002) （20136203110002）
甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2016B-101) （2016B-101）
陇东学院青年科技创新项目(XYSK1501,XYSK1601) （XYSK1501,XYSK1601）
