经济与管理研究2017，Vol.38Issue(6)：3-14,12.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2017.06.001
"十三五"时期中国经济年均增速的稳健性分析
Robustness Analysis of Average Annual Growth Rate of China`s Economy During the 13th Five-Year Plan
摘要
Abstract
This paper explores the stability of average annual growth rate of China`s economy during the 13th Five-Year Plan,to examine whether the average annual growth rate can hold on to the 6.5% bottom line.Firstly,this paper adopts the method of potential output to account China`s economic growth from 1979 to 2015,which is divided into capital,labor,technical progress rate and the improvement of capacity realization.Secondly,according to the data of GDP,capital stock and labor from 1978 to 2015,the paper figures out the growth rate of technology progress and capacity realization by employing the latent variable approach and the H-P filter method.Thirdly,the study uses a combination of the time-series forecasting method and the scenario analysis method to predict the average annual growth rate of motivating factors in the next five years under three cases,and then the average annual growth rate of China`s economy during the 13th Five-Year Plan.Prediction results show that only in the optimistic case,can the average annual growth in China hold on to the 6.5% bottom line during the 13th Five-Year Plan.Therefore,China need to take effective measures to improve the economic development.关键词
十三五/经济增速/底线6.5%Key words
the 13th Five-Year Plan/economic growth rate/6.5% bottom line分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
游士兵,段晓璞.."十三五"时期中国经济年均增速的稳健性分析[J].经济与管理研究,2017,38(6):3-14,12.基金项目
湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重大基金项目"湖北'黄金十年'经济安全评价及防控策略研究"(14ZD001) （14ZD001）
