经济与管理研究2017，Vol.38Issue(6)：84-95,12.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2017.06.009
公共预算决策及时性的动态均衡分析
Dynamic Equilibrium Analysis on the Timeliness of Public Budget Decision
摘要
Abstract
The timely decision-making of the public budget is the important manifestation of the government`s good governance and the capacity of national governance.Based on the prospect theory,this paper constructs the "double-group" static and dynamic prospect game models,so as to fully analyze and simulate the real world of budget decisions.The results show that whether the budget decision is timely or not is related to budget deviation,decision-maker`s preference,loss aversion and delay cost.To avoid budget delays,a budget system should be developed to smooth the fluctuations of income,with emphasis on budget management and control during periods of extreme fiscal conditions;decision-makers should be guided to form consistent spending preferences and to extend the leader`s tenure;and the budgetary incentives mechanism and information network sharing platform should also be established.关键词
公共预算决策/预算延迟/预算僵局/前景理论/动态均衡Key words
public budget decision/budget delay/budget stalemate/prospect theory/dynamic equilibrium分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马蔡琛,袁娇..公共预算决策及时性的动态均衡分析[J].经济与管理研究,2017,38(6):84-95,12.基金项目
金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国预算绩效指标框架与指标库建设研究"(12&ZD198) （12&ZD198）
国家社会科学基金项目"我国预算制度的演化与改进研究"(12BJY134) （12BJY134）
中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心、南开大学亚洲研究中心研究课题"社会主义市场经济条件下的跨年度预算平衡机制研究"(AS1619) （AS1619）
