交通运输工程与信息学报2017，Vol.15Issue(2)：1-5,13,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4747.2017.02.001
基于Holt-Winters模型的铁路月度货运量预测研究
Prediction Research about Monthly Traffic Volume Based on Holt-Winters Model
摘要
Abstract
Railway freight forecast is an important part of the analysis of railway transportation market,which is of great significance to the development of railway freight business.The railway monthly freight data sequence is such a time series with both trendy growth and seasonal fluctuating characteristics.Holt-Winters model is suitable to predict the time series.In this paper,a Holt-Winters multiplication model was constructed to forecast the railway monthly freight,and the railway bureau fertilizer railway monthly freight as original data was used to do an empirical analysis.The results were compared with the traditional forecasting models',such as gray model's and group regression's.The result shows that Holt-Winters model has the highest prediction accuracy.关键词
铁路/货运量预测/Holt-Winters模型Key words
Railway/freight prediction/Holt-Winters model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
汤银英,李龙..基于Holt-Winters模型的铁路月度货运量预测研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2017,15(2):1-5,13,6.基金项目
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2015X006-B) （2015X006-B）
“综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室”资助. （）
