气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(3)：198-212,15.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.173
CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较
Comparing Simulated Temperature and Precipitation ofCMIP3 and CMIP5 in Arid Areas of Northwest China
摘要
Abstract
The ensemble mean of simulated temperature and precipitation of CMIP5 and CMIP3 in arid areas of Northwest China was compared, the results showed that CMIP5 was more close to the observed value. Comparing with CMIP3, the correlation coefficient of CMIP5 was improved by 0.15 for year, 0.13 in spring, 0.24 in summer and 0.02 in autumn, while decreased by 0.07 in winter. CMIP5 simulated better trend of mean temperature than CMIP3 in the arid area of Northwest China, the biases reduced by 0.03 ℃ per decade for year, 0.1 ℃ per decade for spring, 0.01 ℃ per decade for summer, 0.06 ℃ per decade for autumn and 0.14℃ per decade for winter,respectively. The annual and seasonal bias of CMIP5 was 1-2 ℃ lower than CMIP3 in the arid area of Northwest China, but temperature for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 were 3-6 ℃ and 1-4 ℃ higher than observation in Tianshan Mountains, especially in summer, which was reached to 6 ℃ and 4 ℃, respectively. Two models showed little difference in the correlation coefficient between simulated and observed precipitation, which was lower than 0.1,but the bias was still higher. The precision of precipitation trend for CMIP5 was lower than CMIP3, the biases increased by 0.67 mm per decade for year, 0.23 mm per decade for spring, 0.51 mm per decade for summer,0.11 mm per decade for autumn, and 0.14 mm per decade for winter, respectively. The root mean square error of precipitation of CMIP5 was decreased by 77.6 mm, 25.5 mm, 25.0 mm, 18.8 mm and 13.9 mm for annual,spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. In spatial, CMIP5 still simulated higher annual and seasonal precipitation, but was better than CMIP3. Conversely, CMIP3 and CMIP5 gave lower annual and seasonal precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, which was 50 mm lower than the observation.关键词
西北干旱区/CMIP3/CMIP5/平均气温/降水量/模拟能力Key words
the northwest arid areas/CMIP3/CMIP5/average temperature/precipitation/simulation ability引用本文复制引用
吴晶,王宝鉴,杨艳芬,常燕,陈林,杨建才,刘新伟..CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(3):198-212,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目 (41501301,41405088) （41501301,41405088）
西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费专项资金 (Z109021604) （Z109021604）
