气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(3)：243-252,10.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.135
未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区 农业气候资源变化特征
Variations of Agro-Climatic Resources Under a Future Climate Scenarioin the Potential Northward Region of Winter Wheat
摘要
Abstract
Based on future climate data under RCP4.5 scenario generated from the regional climate modeling system (PRECIS), climatic northern boundary of winter wheat would move northward 147.8 km in 2071?2097 and possible planting area would increase by 1.86 ×105 km2 relative to 1981?2010. The variations of agro-climatic resources under RCP4.5 scenario in the potential northward region of winter wheat were analyzed based on the nine selected indexes of agro-climatic resources. Results indicated that: (1) compared with the climate baseline (1961?1990), the light resource in potential northward region would decrease; heat resource would significantly increase with an enhanced variability in the last 30 years of the 21st century; precipitation resource shows an overall slight increasing trend but with an greater fluctuation; (2) in the time slice 2030T (2021—2050), 2050T (2041—2070), and 2070T (2061—2090), light resource would decrease more in the northeast of study area, while less in the southwest; heat resource would increase more in northern area than southern part; precipitation resource would increase obviously in northeast of the potential northward region.关键词
RCP4.5/冬小麦/种植北界/农业气候资源Key words
RCP4.5/winter wheat/northern boundary/agro-climatic resources引用本文复制引用
张梦婷,张玉静,佟金鹤,李阔,潘婕,许吟隆..未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区 农业气候资源变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(3):243-252,10.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目 (2013BAC09B04) （2013BAC09B04）
948 计划重点项目 (2011-G9) （2011-G9）
