水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(4)：8-12,5.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.04.002
兰州市1951-2015年降水量变化特征研究
Study on variation characteristics of precipitation in Lanzhou from 1951 to 2015
摘要
Abstract
In order to find out the variation characteristics of precipitation in Lanzhou,the variation characteristics of the annual and all the seasonal precipitations of Lanzhou since recent 65 years are analyzed herein with the linear tendency estimate method,moving average method,accumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method and Morlet wavelet analysis method according to the monthly precipitation series data from 1951 to 2015 recorded by Lanzhou Meteorological Station.The study result shows that the annual precipitations of Lanzhou since recent 65 years are generally present fluctuated downtrends with the tendency rate of-8.20 mm/10 a.Except a little rising trend of the precipitation from winter within the four seasons,the variation trends of the precipitations in the other three seasons are the same with that of the annual precipitations and show the fluctuated downtrends.A sudden change from increase to decrease of the annual precipitation occurs in 1979,while several sudden change points exist in the variations of the precipitations in all the seasons.A multi-time scale effect is there in the variation of precipitation of Lanzhou,in which the first,second and third main cycles of the annual precipi~tion variations are 46,32,and 14 years respectively.At present,it is in a more rich precipitation phase of the first main cycle,and the status of the more rich precipitation is to exist in the next 5 ～ 7 years yet.The study result can provide a certain scientific basis for the agricultural production activities in Lanzhou.关键词
兰州市/降水量/变化特征/Mann-Kendall非参数检验/Morlet小波分析Key words
Lanzhou City/precipitation/variation characteristics/Mann-Kendall nonparametric test/Morlet wavelet analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡建桥,刘万锋,常周梅,张建香..兰州市1951-2015年降水量变化特征研究[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(4):8-12,5.基金项目
庆阳市科技局青年科技基金项目(ZJ2014-08) （ZJ2014-08）
西峰区科技局科技合作基金项目(XK2016-20) （XK2016-20）
