水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(4)：13-17,24,6.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.04.003
基于参数实时优化的洪水预报系统研究——以黑河干流洪水为例
Real-time parameter optimization-based study on flood forecast system——A case study on Heihe River flood
摘要
Abstract
Timely and accurate flood forecasting system can provide important basis for flood control and disaster mitigation.Aiming at problems,i.e.the flood forecast system mainly focuses on the research of single model,the model parameters are fixed,the accumulation of long-term forecasting error,etc.at present,a real-time flood forecast system with the functions of multimodel selection,parameter optimization and improvement of forecasting effect through real-time improvement of the model parameter is established herein.The result from the application of this model to the forecasts of two flood events occurred at the main stream of Heihe River shows that the accuracies of the forecasts of both the flood events are different from each forecasting model,which are accordingly enhanced after the optimization of the parameters concerned.It is known from the accuracy that the TOPMODEL is more suitable for this river basin,of which the accuracy is increased from 0.920 9,0.910 3 to 0.987 9,0.958 9.The relevant experiment shows that the system has the application prospect for the flood forecast of the arid and semi-arid region.关键词
黑河/洪水实时预报系统/模型库/参数优化/分布式水文模型/降雨径流预报/水文预报精度/决策支持系统Key words
Heihe River/real-time flood forecast system/model base/parameter optimization/distributed hydrological made1/rainfall-runoff forecasting/hydrological forecasting accuracy/decision support system分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
强德霞,赵彦博,南卓铜,吴小波..基于参数实时优化的洪水预报系统研究——以黑河干流洪水为例[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(4):13-17,24,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41471059) （41471059）
