水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(4)：18-24,7.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.04.004
干旱区水量平衡模型参数率定策略研究
Study on parameter calibration strategy for model of water balance in arid area
付晓杰 1雷晓辉 2倪漪岚1
作者信息
- 1. 杭州览千信息科技有限公司,浙江杭州311200
- 2. 中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
By taking a water balance model for arid area as the study object,the strategy of parameter calibration in sub-regions for the model is established,and then the parameters of water loss coefficient of the mid-river reach,the recession coefficient of irrigation area,etc.are calibrated with the modified dynamically dimensioned search algorithm (MDDS).The theoretical feasibility of the strategy of parameter calibration in sub-regions is demonstrated with the conditional probability and the theory of Bayesian statistics,while the case verification on the performances of the strategies for both the whole region and the sub-region model parameter calibrations is carried out through the water balance model made for arid area (Kaiduhe River in Xinjiang).In accordance with the measured monthly average flow hydrographs from Jan.2000 to Dec.2015 got from Yanqi Hydrological Station,the parameter calibrations of the simulated results from the water balance models for both Yanqi Hydrological Station and Baolangsunu Hydrological Station are made,of which the results are analyzed as well.The simulated results applied to Yanqi Hydrological Station and Baolangsunu Hydrological Station of Kaidu River Watershed show that the calibration in sub-regions has a larger advantage than the calibration of whole region in the aspects of the number of the parameters to be calibrated,calculating time and calibrating effect for all the sub-regions.关键词
模型率定/率定策略/条件概率/贝叶斯统计/水量平衡模型/干旱区Key words
model calibration/calibration strategy/conditional probability/Bayesian statistics/water balance model/arid area分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
付晓杰,雷晓辉,倪漪岚..干旱区水量平衡模型参数率定策略研究[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(4):18-24,7.
