水利学报2017，Vol.48Issue(5)：505-515,11.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160454
中国多尺度不同量级极端降水发生率非平稳性研究
The spatiotemporal rates of heavy precipitation occurrence at difference scales in China
摘要
Abstract
The spatiotemporal rates of heavy precipitation occurrence were analyzed comprehensively based on Peak-over-Threshold (POT) resampling under different thresholds by kernel estimating method,Poisson regression model and GAMLSS according to daily precipitation data of 728 stations during 1951-2014 over China.The results indicate that:(1) the time of heavy precipitation occurrence has the most un-uniformin inter-annual on northwest arid areas.In addition,the degree and scope of uneven is increasing and expanding with bigger threshold.The rate of heavy precipitation occurrence is significantly increasing in inter-annual in northwestern and southeastern China,which may cause more severe flooding;central and northeastern China are on the contrary,which may have a higher drought risk.(2) The rate of heavy precipitation occurrence of different areas in inner-year are influenced by different climate indices based on Cox regression model,which indicates that the occurrence of heavy precipitation events are not independent but dependent on the changes of the climate indices.(3) Almost all areas didn't exhibit over-dispersed in annual heavy precipitation occurrence times except northwest areas.However,annual heavy precipitation occurrence time trends to temporal over-dispersed with threshold increasing.The occurrence times of heavy occurrence are increasing with Southern oscillation index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) increasing in most areas exceot northeast areas.关键词
POT抽样/回归模型/极端降水发生率/气候指标/非平稳性Key words
POT resampling/regression models/rates of heavy precipitation occurrence/climate indices/non-stationary分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
顾西辉,张强,陈晓宏,范科科..中国多尺度不同量级极端降水发生率非平稳性研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(5):505-515,11.基金项目
国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903) （51425903）
地表过程模型与模拟国家基金委创新群体项目(41621061) （41621061）
国家自然科学基金项目(41401052) （41401052）
