天然气工业2017，Vol.37Issue(5)：113-118,6.DOI:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2017.05.015
基于供应链角度的中国天然气进口风险研究
Risk analysis of natural gas imports in China from the perspective of supply chain
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,natural gas foreign dependence in China has been rapidly increasing,reaching 33.4％ in 2016,for example.However,the risks in the process of import vary with different source countries or regions due to geophysical location,economic environment,resources quality,etc.In view of this,a risk index system of natural gas imports in China was established from the perspective of supply chain.The entropy method was applied to calculate the index weight so as to obtain the risk values from different countries and regions during 2011-2014,with the following findings obtained.(1) Natural gas import risks are generally rising,with continental risks being lower than sea risks on the whole.(2) From the perspective of import sources,the risks of natural gas imports from Turkmenistan are the highest,followed by Uzbekistan,Malaysia,Yemen,Indonesia,Australia,etc.In conclusion,countermeasures should be taken in China from the aspects of optimizing natural gas import sources,strengthening the security of natural gas transporting channels,expanding natural gas development investment,and enhancing self-sufficiency,so as to mitigate such import risks and guarantee the sustainability and stability of natural gas supply in China.关键词
中国/天然气/进口风险/指标/体系/供应链/熵权法/持续性/稳定性Key words
China/Natural gas/Imports risk/Index/System/Supply chain/Entropy method/Sustainability/Stability引用本文复制引用
董秀成,孔朝阳..基于供应链角度的中国天然气进口风险研究[J].天然气工业,2017,37(5):113-118,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“我国天然气安全预警与应急系统研究”(编号:71273277)、教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“扩大我国油气战略储备研究”(编号:11JZD048). （编号:71273277）
