中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(5)：45-53,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170344
城镇化进程中用水量增长的门槛效应与动态作用机制分析
Analysis on threshold effects and dynamic mechanism of water consumption growth in the process of urbanization
摘要
Abstract
As a main trend of developing countries in the 21st century,urbanization dominated the transformation of population,economy and industrial structure,etc.,which became a key factor to drive water consumption growth.Due to the transformation of urban household income,population structure,population density and human capital,the influence of urbanization on water consumption shows staged features.In this paper,the urbanization level and water consumption in different regions of China are analyzed statistically,and the changes of urbanization level and water consumption are described from regional level.Then threshold model is applied to search the key turning points for water consumption and analyzed the relation between water consumption and urbanization.Then PVAR model is adopted to analyze the dynamic influence and mechanism of population on water consumption.Threshold results show:there are remarkable staged characteristics in the influence of urbanization upon water consumption.Taking urbanization and income as threshold variables respectively,the elasticity coefficients between urbanization and water consumption presents inverted "U-shaped" and "U-shaped" trend respectively.However taking human capital as threshold variable,the driving effect decreases with improvement of human capital.The results of the impulse response show:the impulse of urbanization on water consumption has long-term and stable positive effect,while the positive impulses of income and age structure converge to zero.Both of the impulses of population density and human capital are negative,however the effect of population density is increasing while the effect of human capital is decreasing.The result of variance decomposition shows that the growth of water consumption in China is influenced by itself.Besides age structure,population density,income,human capital and urbanization also have small contribution.关键词
城镇化/人口因素/水资源消耗/门槛效应/脉冲响应函数Key words
urbanization/population factors/water consumption/threshold effect/impulse response function分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
秦腾,章恒全,佟金萍,马剑锋..城镇化进程中用水量增长的门槛效应与动态作用机制分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):45-53,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目“用水效率异质特征下跨区域多部门水权配置及政策”(批准号:14BGL097),“基于降雨量指数保险的农业干旱风险控制及对策研究”(批准号:15BGL128) （批准号:14BGL097）
2014年度江苏高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师培养对象资助项目“多区域多部门的水权配置研究” （）
2016年度江苏省“333工程”第三层次人才培养项目“虚拟水与实体水的空间配置研究”. （）
