中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(5)：102-110,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170333
基于海外耕地投资的中国粮食供给安全研究
Research of China's food supply security based on farmland investment overseas
摘要
Abstract
Farmland Investment Overseas is an important measure for Chinese companies to go out and participate in the international investment cooperation,to obtain an important means of cultivated land resources,which will increase Chinese food supply level,influence the domestic grain market through the international cooperation and food imports.Based on Cobb-Douglas production function model,we choose factors of the area sown to grain,grain inundated area,total power of agricultural machinery,rural electricity consumption,labor force of grain production,effective irrigation area of applying river,agricultural product producer price index,the amount of films,fertilizer to fit China's domestic grain production function model.Then we work out the demand functions of rations,industrial grain,fodder,seed grain and grain loss.On this basis,through the scenario analysis method to simulate different scenarios,we simulate the ratio of grain exporting into the Chinese market in overseas production,one of the factors that affect China's grain production,to establish Chiua's grain supply function model,measuring the influence of different situations on the grain supply safety level of China.The research results show that under the pessimistic scenario and the general situation,the farmland investment in the production of grain,the farmland investment overseas has no significant influence on China's grain supply safety while under the optimistic situation,it has significant influence.Further research shows that Farmland Investment Overseas will have a significant impact on China's grain supply safety on the condition that the importing rate exceeds 75.3％.Research conclusions and recommendations:the farmland investment overseas has no significant influence on China's grain supply safety currently though its influence is increasing,which shows great potential to Chinese grain supply safety.It's urgently recommended that the departments attach great importance to farmland investment overseas in the future to guide its development.关键词
海外耕地投资/中国粮食供给安全/柯布道格拉斯生产函数/粮食总供给/粮食总需求Key words
farmland investment overseas/Chinese grain supply security/Cobb-Douglas function/total supply of grain/total demand of grain分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
卢新海,柯善淦..基于海外耕地投资的中国粮食供给安全研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):102-110,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“基于国内外粮食市场联动效应的海外耕地资源利用方式及其对中国粮食安全的影响研究”(批准号:41371522). （批准号:41371522）
