中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(5)：146-152,7.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170402
农村人口转移趋势及空间指向研究
Rural population transferring trend and spatial direction
摘要
Abstract
Rural population transfer and megalopolis development accelerate urbanization.Hence grasping rural population transferring trend and guiding rural population to the urban orderly are the sticking points to promote the construction of new urbanization.We take Hunan Province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration which are typical and representative in the integration of urban agglomeration as a case to explore rural population transferring trend and its spatial direction.By comparing the results of Hunan's population in 2016-2030 which is estimated by the population development equation and regression analysis respectively,we find that the population development equation is a better choice for long-term population projections although its preset annual population growth rate is subjective.Logistic growth model is widely applied in forecasting urbanization rate.Rural population transferring trend is predicted through these steps:Step 1,forecast the population and urbanization rate of Hunan province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration in 2016-2030.Step 2,calculate the population distribution.Step 3,estimate rural population transferring trend.The results show that there are approximately 9.8 million and 5.67 million rural population of Hunan Province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration respectively will transfer to the urban between 2016 to 2030.And,the urbanization rate and the rural population transfer of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration,especially the core city,have been ahead of the Hunan Province.The conclusion is that the urban agglomeration development with urbanization plays a prominent role in rural population transfer whose spatial direction is the megalopolis.It means that urban agglomeration is the main economic space form for leading the urbanization.It is also the traction and cohesion for rural population transfer.On the condition that the speed of rural population transfer is accelerating,and it is very urgent for innovating the urban governance concept and governance model.Maybe,smart city is a good choice.关键词
农村人口转移/城镇化/智慧城市/城市群Key words
rural population transfer/urbanization/smart city/urban agglomeration分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
颜姜慧,朱舜..农村人口转移趋势及空间指向研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):146-152,7.基金项目
江苏省社会科学基金项目“江苏省智慧城市治理绩效评价研究”(批准号:16GLC011) （批准号:16GLC011）
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学项目“资源型城市群城镇化问题研究”(批准号:2016SJB790032) （批准号:2016SJB790032）
国家社会科学基金项目“长三角及其经济腹地城市化空间格局优化研究”(批准号:I4BJL110). （批准号:I4BJL110）
