中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(5)：170-176,7.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170330
基于冲击模型方法的自然保护区可靠性研究:以草海为例
Reliability of nature reserve based on shock Model method with an example of Caohai Lake
摘要
Abstract
Nature reserves are a special kind of reliability systems with the special protection and management policies.From the perspective of reliability theory,this paper attempts to investigate the life behavior and failure law of a nature reserve system by combined using shock model method and MRTLAB stochastic simulation and with a realistic example of Caohai Lake in Guizhou Province.According to our analytical results,it drew following conclusions:① until the 1950s,due to less human intervention,the system reliability of Caohai Nature Reserve remained relatively stable for a long time.The impacts of human activities began in the late 1950s,which caused a strong interference on the ecological function of Caohai Lake.② During the period of 1958-1980,the government behavior for preventing flooding and increasing farmland formed the main shocks on Caohai Nature Reserve and had a devastating impact on the system reliability.③ For more than 30 years after 1980,the farmers spontaneous activity of growing farmland from draining off water and deforestation developed a new round of shock which caused a continuous effect on the ecological functions of the system.④ The current ecological functions of Caohai Lake for regulating climate,relieving natural disasters and maintaining biological diversity severely weakened.If such an impact pattern could not be effectively alleviated,then a functional collapse of Caohai Lake system shall occur again with a high probability in the very near future.关键词
自然保护区/冲击模型/可靠性/寿命分布/草海Key words
nature reserve/shock model/reliability/life distribution/Caohai Lake分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
王琪,白建明,贾泽龙,杨都..基于冲击模型方法的自然保护区可靠性研究:以草海为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):170-176,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“基于冲击模型方法的保险风险系统可靠性研究”(批准号:71171103) （批准号:71171103）
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“大数据驱动的城市公共安全风险研究”(批准号:16JZD023) （批准号:16JZD023）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“车险欺诈的识别、检查与控制策略研究”(批准号:16LZUJBWZD002) （批准号:16LZUJBWZD002）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“保险欺诈的识别与应对研究”(批准号:15LZUJBWYJ036). （批准号:15LZUJBWYJ036）
