北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.53Issue(2)：208-214,7.DOI:10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2017.02.016
基于SWIM模型模拟气候变化对青海湖布哈河流域水文过程的影响
Simulating the influence of climate change on hydrological processes at Buha River basin of Qinghai Lake by SWIM
摘要
Abstract
Qinghai Lake basin is a key area to maintain the ecological security of eastern Tibetan Plateau.Projections of climate change in Tibetan Plateau and SWIM (soil and water integrated model) are used to predict potential changes in runoff depth,evapotranspiration and deep percolation at Buha River Basin in three periods of the future (2016-2035,2046-2065,2081-2100).Monthly runoff simulated by SWIM is found to correspond well with measured values.Therefore SWIM model can be applied to alpine regions.With increase in precipitation and rise in temperatures,runoff depth and evapotranspiration will continue to increase up to 2100.In addition,deep percolation will decline initially then recover and rise.The impact of climate change on hydrological processes varies in different seasons.Impact on deep percolation concentrates in July and August,effect on runoff depth and evapotranspiration is seen between June and August.Some spatial differences in hydrological processes are present.Increase in runoff depth will concentrate in the upstream and downstream areas,whereas actual evapotranspiration changes significantly in the middle and upper reaches.Further,deep percolation will rise slightly in parts of the upstream and estuaries,but will decline in the middle reaches.These results will be useful for water resources management and watershed conservation.关键词
气候变化/SWIM模型/青海湖/布哈河流域/水文模拟Key words
climate change/SWIM model/Qinghai Lake/Buha River basin/hydrological simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周一飞,陈慧颖,张淑兰,黄永梅..基于SWIM模型模拟气候变化对青海湖布哈河流域水文过程的影响[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,53(2):208-214,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41130640) （41130640）
