气象科学2017，Vol.37Issue(2)：195-204,10.DOI:10.3969/2016jms.0011
华中区域LRUC系统的构建与试验
Establishment and evaluation of LRUC in central China
摘要
Abstract
Rapid and effective assimilation of the regional observation data in meso-scale model is the key to improve the accuracy and timeliness of the local finer numerical prediction.The rapid update cycle system (LRUC) based on LAPS and WRF was briefly introduced in this study.Taking a typical Meiyu front rainstorm influencing the middle reaches of Yangtze River as an example,several experiment schemes were designed to comparatively analyze the impact of Doppler radar data cycle assimilation over Middle China on the improvement of heavy rain forecast combined with the precipitation observation.Based on the case study,a few schemes are selected to analyze the impact of radar data assimilation on the application of LRUC in the main flood season (June-August) of 2007.It is shown that better initial model field for WRF with the Doppler radar data assimilation in LAPS can be provided.It can be revealed that the LAPS background field assimilating both surface and radar observations by LAPS leads to better initial field and further precipitation forecast improvement than only assimilating surface observations.The larger the precipitation is,the higher the TS scores of 24 h precipitation forecast lead to.It is concluded that building LRUC can add time evolution information of observations to the initial field of model by using more time cycle analysis,so as to improve the precipitation forecast,especially for the heavy rainfall.The LRUC is stable and has good TS scores.关键词
LAPS/快速更新循环/数值试验/暴雨/雷达Key words
LAPS/RUC/Numerical simulation/Heavy rainfall/Radar分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李红莉,王志斌..华中区域LRUC系统的构建与试验[J].气象科学,2017,37(2):195-204,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41375041,41375057,41105072) （41375041,41375057,41105072）
国家科技支撑计划(2012BAK10B04) （2012BAK10B04）
湖北省科技发展基金数值预报专项(2016S02) （2016S02）
科技部公益(气象)行业专项(GYHY201406001,GYHY201306076) （气象）
