气象科学2017，Vol.37Issue(2)：256-264,9.DOI:10.3969/2016jms.0052
基于C4.5算法的长江中下游地区夏季降水预测模型研究及应用
Research and application of summer rainfall prediction model in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River based on C4.5 algorithm
摘要
Abstract
In order to conduct the short-term climate prediction on summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,74 circulation index data from National Climate Center and then global circulation index data such as the Western Pacific (WP) index,Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI),ENSO index and so on from NOAA were used to sum up 34 early spring factors affecting the summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and to analyze the relationship between early spring factors and summer rainfall.Furthermore,two kinds of summer rainfall decision tree prediction models are constructed for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1951-2013 based on the C4.5 algorithm of data mining.Five discriminant rules for "whether too much" and seven discriminant rules for "whether too little" were obtained.In whole data,about 80％ history data are randomly selected as training set for the models with the training set accuracy of 94.12％ and 93.88％,respectively.The remaining 20％ data are used as the test set for the models with the prediction accuracy of 91.67％ and 85.71％ respectively.Results show that the summer rainfall prediction models in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River based on C4.5 algorithm have higher prediction accuracy with reasonable and effective models construction.The models' discriminant rules are based on large data theory,and consider a wide range of related factors and factor permutation and combination.The models are processed by intelligent selection of key factors,and objective and automatic implement is good enough to provide a new idea and method for the short-term climate prediction on precipitation in flood season of the Yangtze River Basin.关键词
长江中下游/夏季降水/C4.5算法/预测模型Key words
Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River/Summer rainfall/C4.5 algorithm/Prediction model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
苗春生,何东坡,王坚红,史达伟..基于C4.5算法的长江中下游地区夏季降水预测模型研究及应用[J].气象科学,2017,37(2):256-264,9.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAH05B01) （2012BAH05B01）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206068) （气象）
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(41276033) （41276033）
江苏省科技支撑计划项目(BE2012774,BE2014729) （BE2012774,BE2014729）
江苏高校优秀学科建设工程项目(PAPD) （PAPD）
